![]() ![]() Since 2017, Rosario’s 60 total homers have included 15 non-barreled hits, among the top in the league for non-barreled home run rate. Better yet is that Rosario’s pull rate is great for his power potential. The 32 homers would certainly be bankable - just eight outfielders reached that mark last season. He’s averaged about 450 batted ball events each of the past two season, so let’s do the math.Ĥ50 batted ball events x 44.1% FB rate (2018) x 16.4% HR/FB rate (2017) = 32 homers If we cherry pick his best home run rate and apply that to his best fly ball rate, we can get a good sense of Rosario’s power ceiling if he were to “put it all together,” so to speak. In 2018, his home run total dipped slightly, but he hit a career high fly ball rate. In 2017, he hit a career-high 27 bombs off a career-high HR/FB rate (2019 excluded). These changes are the reason he’s become a usable fantasy outfielder and was drafted just inside the top 100 players going into the season.īut what’s interesting about Rosario is how those incremental gains have translated into better and better power numbers. There’s no bright, blinking lights highlighting any one metric that screams “Look at that adjustment!” His plate discipline has gotten better over the years, with his K% dropping from 25% to 17.6% since 2015 and his zone contact rate improving from 78% to 88% over that same span. ![]() Over the past four seasons, Rosario’s improvements have been mostly incremental. The fair question, however, is: Has Rosario turned into a power hitter? He’s obviously not going to hit the 77 home runs he’s currently on pace for, but could he hit half that? 33? 35? Let’s take a look: A “not legit” verdict indicates recent performance is more related to a hot streak than a breakout.Ĭase for Legitness (Since 4/14): 47 PAs, 8 HRs, 14 RBI, 7 BarrelsĪrgument: This isn’t me making some bold call: Rosario was legit before he apparently found the Infinity Gauntlet last week and made half of his fly balls disappear over the outfield fence. A “legit” verdict indicates that a player’s underlying metrics or changes to a playing time situation point to him being better than we’d previously assumed. Rather, the goal is to identify players for whom we may want to reconsider our rest-of-season valuations based on recent performance. You - a loyal Pitcher List reader, Twitter follower, and street teamer - are obviously much too savvy for that. For context, this goal of this series isn’t to point out that Player X won’t hit. Welcome to Is It Legit, where each week I’ll be doing what every fantasy analyst tells owners not to do and recklessly diving into small sample sizes from previous weeks to make a rash judgment on how useful a player will be rest of season. ![]()
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